2026 PNW Regional Drought Info & Resources

ATNI Climate, in collaboration with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), prepared the following regional drought impacts across the Pacific Northwest. Additional NOAA NIDIS resources can be found at www.drought.gov.

Regional Impacts

Resources

The Columbia and Snake River Basin is currently navigating a challenging hydrological landscape defined by low snowpack and significant runoff deficits. With a statewide drought emergency in effect, the region faces a delicate balance between hydropower needs, ecological health, and treaty obligations. Current data indicates that spring salmon returns are tracking closer to historical averages rather than the optimistic projections initially forecasted. This situation is compounded by a reservoir system that may struggle to refill, creating a high-stakes environment for water management as the summer heat approaches.

1. Current streamflow and reservoir levels remain near minimum operating pools

  • Ice Harbor (Snake River): Outflows measured between 61 to 76 kcfs (thousand cubic feet per second); forebay near 438 feet, holding at the Minimum Operating Pool of 437 feet. Reflects the standard juvenile outmigration configuration as reported by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE).
  • Bonneville (Columbia River): Tailwater stage approximately 19.27 feet, with elevated spring outflows matching upstream releases.
  • Water temperature: Both projects remain well below the 68°F lethal threshold for salmonids, and historically do not approach it until late June.
  • Implication: Spring operations are configured for juvenile outmigration with adequate thermal margin, but the elevated outflows reflect upstream drafting rather than abundant supply. Current conditions do not signal hydrological strength entering the summer window.

2. Low snowpack and drafting operations limit reservoir refill capacity

  • Grand Coulee operations: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) data shows the forebay at 1,251.6 feet against a maximum normal pool of 1,290 feet, leaving roughly 38 feet of refill capacity.
  • Net drafting: Inflow of approximately 122.6 kcfs (thousand cubic feet per second) against outflow of 161.1 kcfs, producing a net draft near 38.5 kcfs.
  • Drought context: Washington snowpack ended April 1, 2026 at 53% of median, prompting a statewide drought emergency declaration on April 8, 2026. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) April through September runoff forecasts are trending below normal across the basin.
  • Implication: The current draft positions Grand Coulee for a muted, earlier-than-typical freshet rather than a robust runoff. Flow augmentation reserves for the late-summer thermal-stress window are at elevated risk. Grand Coulee also remains the structural barrier to salmon return into Upper Columbia United Tribes (UCUT) member Tribal territories, including the Coeur d’Alene Tribe, Kalispel Tribe, Kootenai Tribe of Idaho, Spokane Tribe, and Colville Confederated Tribes. UCUT’s Phase 2 Implementation Plan and the 2023 $200 million congressional appropriation for reintroduction above blocking dams assume a host reservoir positioned to support reintroduction operations, which a 2026-class drawdown does not provide.

3. Spring Chinook returns are tracking near historical averages, not preseason highs

  • Preseason forecast: The 2026 upriver Spring Chinook forecast is 147,300 fish, above the 10-year average of 126,248.
  • Verified passage: The Idaho Department of Fish and Game (Idaho F&G) verified 5,870 adults through April 22, closely tracking the 10-year average for that date.
  • Year-to-date (YTD) status: As of May 4, the historical 50% passage point, the 10-year YTD benchmark is roughly 47,750 fish (50% of the 95,497 mean run for March 15 to May 31). A 2026 YTD of 40,373 puts the run at approximately 85% of the 10-year YTD average.
  • Sockeye: Excluded from this reporting window. First significant Bonneville passage is historically mid- to late-June.
  • Implication: This run is the in-river harvest base for Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC) member Tribes, including the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs, Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation, and Nez Perce Tribe, under U.S. v. Oregon. The 2008 Columbia Basin Fish Accords tied $900 million in restoration funding to adaptive dam-operations management for salmon survival and passage. An average run paired with constrained augmentation flow tightens the harvest envelope rather than loosening it.

Treaty co-management context (CRITFC, UCUT, USRT).

  • Upper Snake context (USRT). USRT member tribes (Burns Paiute, Fort McDermitt Paiute-Shoshone, Shoshone-Bannock at Fort Hall, Shoshone-Paiute at Duck Valley) operate from an ecosystem-based function policy framework: clean and abundant water, fish passage to historical habitats, increased spring and summer flows, lower summer water temperatures, and the ability to buffer climate variability. That framework is the operative lens for 2026 flow conversations that touch Brownlee, Hells Canyon, or upper Snake passage assumptions, particularly under FERC licensing review. USRT’s ecosystem-based function framework is the operative policy lens for any flow-augmentation conversation that touches Brownlee, Hells Canyon, or upper Snake passage. They should be looped in early, not consulted after operational windows close.
  • Lower Columbia (CRITFC member tribes: Umatilla, Warm Springs, Yakama, Nez Perce). U.S. v. Oregon harvest sharing and the 2008 Columbia Basin Fish Accords (signed by Umatilla, Warm Springs, Yakama, and Colville with BPA, USACE, USBR for $900M in restoration funding) frame the in-river harvest envelope. An average run paired with constrained augmentation flow tightens harvest negotiations rather than expanding them. The Accords explicitly require adaptive management for dam operations to meet salmon survival and passage needs, which puts 2026 hydropower-versus-fish decisions on a treaty footing, not a pure operations footing.
  • Upper Columbia (UCUT member tribes: Coeur d’Alene, Kalispel, Kootenai of Idaho, Spokane, Colville). UCUT’s Phase 2 Implementation Plan and the 2023 $200M congressional appropriation for salmon reintroduction above Grand Coulee assume the host reservoir can support reintroduction operations. Aggressive 2026 drawdown to backstop downstream flow obligations creates direct interference with that work and warrants a coordinated UCUT position before any further drafting.

Key takeaway. Plan operations against an average Spring Chinook run rather than a strong one, and a Grand Coulee Reservoir that will not refill to typical levels. Three concrete actions follow. First, model 2026 flow augmentation reserves against the 50% exceedance forecast, not preseason optimism, and identify the late-summer thermal-stress window where reserves are most at risk. Second, sequence Tribal co-management consultation early in the operational cycle, because 2026 is unusual in that decisions on flow augmentation, hydropower scheduling, and reintroduction support are simultaneously Treaty-implicating across the lower river through the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC), the blocked area through the Upper Columbia United Tribes (UCUT), and the upper Snake through the Upper Snake River Tribes (USRT). Third, frame harvest envelope conversations with CRITFC member Tribes around an average run paired with constrained augmentation flow, which tightens rather than loosens the negotiation. Late-spring operational choices should be treated as Treaty-footing decisions, not pure operations decisions.

The 2026 dry season opens with a regional, not localized, hydrologic deficit across the Cascades. Statewide snowpack ended at 53% of median (near the 5th percentile of all years on record since 1985), peak SWE arrived roughly two weeks early, and the May 4 ESP10 50%-exceedance forecast for Skagit April through September is 72% of normal. Thermally stressed populations like the South Fork Nooksack Chinook face elevated risk through August and September.

1. Snowpack and source water health are at near-record lows

  • Stevens Pass SNOTEL Site #791 (3,940 feet, Central Cascades, Skykomish and Wenatchee headwaters): Approximately 27% of the 1991-2020 median for May 4, tracking among the lowest values in the period of record. Down from 69% on March 14, 2026, illustrating how rapidly the deficit grew with early melt.
  • Rainy Pass SNOTEL Site #711 (4,880 feet, North Cascades, Skagit and Stehekin headwaters): Outperforming most Central Cascade sites due to elevation, but still meaningfully below median for the date as reported by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS).
  • Implication: Below-median snowpack is the rule rather than the exception in 2026. Rapid early melt has front-loaded the runoff and depleted the natural reservoir that would otherwise sustain late-summer flows.

2. Streamflow projections indicate a regional deficit and front-loaded runoff

  • Skagit near Concrete (CONW1): 50% exceedance forecast of 3,935 thousand acre-feet (KAF) for April through August (71% of the 1991-2020 average) and 4,294 KAF for April through September (72% of average). January through July is healthier at 95%, confirming that runoff has shifted into winter and early spring rather than disappearing.
  • Hydrograph shape: Peak Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) occurred 21 to 34 days earlier than normal across the West. Combined with the mid-elevation rain-on-snow events of December and March, this produces a front-loaded hydrograph: high winter runoff, an early and compressed snowmelt freshet, and a shallower, longer-tailed recession.
  • Regional context: May 4 Extended Streamflow Prediction 10-year (ESP10) forecasts for April through September show comparable Pacific Northwest basins running well below average, including Dungeness at 60%, Stehekin at 71%, Chelan at 65%, Methow at 87%, and Willamette at Salem at 56%. The Skagit is typical, not an outlier; the deficit is regional.
  • Implication: The 50% exceedance forecast points to a drier, warmer, and longer late-summer baseflow period. A 10% exceedance (drier) outcome would put the Skagit April through September at 83% of average, while a 90% exceedance (wetter) outcome holds at 68%. Even the favorable tail is below normal.

3. Persistent summer low flows threaten Puget Sound salmon recovery targets

  • Indicator: Summer low flow in streams and rivers (Streams and Floodplains Vital Sign, Indicator #46), with a baseline of 1948-1998 minimums measured at 18 unregulated indicator gages.
  • Observed trend: Flows below the 1948-1998 baseline minimums were observed at least once at all 18 gages during the 1999-2023 study period, with occurrences below baseline increasing since 2015. In 2023, 7-day mean daily flows below baseline minimums occurred more than 50% of the time at 9 of the 18 gages.
  • Basin scope: This indicator tracks unregulated basins. Among the rivers under consideration, only the Nooksack River, notably the South Fork, cleanly fits. The Skagit River and Puyallup River are heavily regulated by upstream dams and are tracked through different management metrics.
  • Implication: 2026 conditions point toward another year reinforcing this negative trend. Persistent below-baseline summer flows in unregulated basins compound habitat stress for salmonids and signal continued divergence from Puget Sound recovery targets.

4. Low baseflows increase the risk of mass mortality for thermally stressed Chinook

  • Reference event: The 2021 South Fork Nooksack pre-spawn mortality event killed approximately 2,500 returning Chinook, representing at least 80% of the run, when South Fork temperatures peaked at 72°F during the late-June heat dome.
  • Population vulnerability: The South Fork Nooksack Chinook population currently sits approximately 98% below its federal delisting goal under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and cannot absorb another mass mortality event, as reported by the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW).
  • 2026 risk profile: The combination of below-normal snowpack-fed baseflows and early melt-out raises the probability of repeat thermal-pathogen events similar to the 2021 heat dome.
  • Implication: These fish constitute the primary Treaty harvest base for the Lummi Nation and the Nooksack Indian Tribe, not generic ESA-listed Chinook. Under Tribal co-management frameworks, 2026 hydrology places these Treaty-protected resources at elevated risk, necessitating early coordination on habitat protection and flow management.

Treaty Co-management Context

  • The Skagit and Nooksack basins fall under the Treaty of Point Elliott (1855), with harvest and habitat co-management governed by the U.S. v. Washington (Boldt, 1974) framework and its progeny, including the federal trust obligation to maintain habitat capable of supporting the treaty fishery. Co-managing nations in the affected basins are NWIFC members: Lummi Nation and Nooksack Indian Tribe in the Nooksack; Sauk-Suiattle, Swinomish, and Upper Skagit (Skagit System Cooperative) in the Skagit; Tulalip Tribes downstream of the Skykomish and Snohomish; Stillaguamish in the Stillaguamish. A 2026 thermal-block event in the South Fork Nooksack is not an environmental event happening near treaty waters; it is an event inside the treaty harvest base.
  • Co-managing nations in the relevant basins, all NWIFC members: Lummi Nation and Nooksack Indian Tribe in the Nooksack; Sauk-Suiattle, Swinomish, and Upper Skagit through the Skagit System Cooperative in the Skagit; Tulalip Tribes downstream of the Skykomish and Snohomish. South Fork Nooksack thermal mortality events fall directly inside the treaty harvest base for Lummi and Nooksack.
  • ATNI member nations downstream of the Skagit and Nooksack (Lummi, Nooksack, Sauk-Suiattle, Swinomish, Upper Skagit, Tulalip, plus Stillaguamish) are positioned to coordinate a regional drought-and-salmon position rather than nation-by-nation responses, particularly through ATNI’s natural resources committees and the Tribal Climate Resilience network.
  • Implication: a 2026 thermal-block event in the South Fork Nooksack is not an environmental event happening near treaty waters. It is an event inside the treaty harvest base, with federal trust implications.

Key takeaway. Treat 2026 as a baseline-of-record drought year for source water and salmon, not a localized pinch. Tribal natural resources programs in the Nooksack River basin should pre-position three operational capacities before the late-June risk window: cold-water refugia monitoring at known thermal refuges, hatchery contingency plans for emergency broodstock holds, and thermal-block protocols modeled on 2021 response gaps. The South Fork Nooksack Chinook population sits approximately 98% below its federal delisting goal under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and cannot absorb another mass mortality event of the 2021 scale. State, federal, and utility conversations about summer flow this year should default to Treaty-rights protection language rather than generic conservation framing, because the affected populations are the primary Treaty harvest base for the Lummi Nation and the Nooksack Indian Tribe under the Treaty of Point Elliott (1855) and the U.S. v. Washington (Boldt, 1974) framework. That is the operative legal frame, and using it consistently strengthens the federal trust-obligation argument for habitat and flow protection.

Central Oregon’s 2026 agricultural season is defined by a significant disconnect between relatively healthy reservoir storage and a failing snowpack. While carryover water from previous years has provided a temporary buffer, the underlying hydrology is tracking alongside 2021—one of the most severe drought years in recent history. With headwater snowpack at record lows, the region is facing a shift where irrigation districts must rely on stored water much earlier than usual, creating a precarious outlook for late-summer water availability and ecosystem health.

1. Agricultural water allocations face multi-year downtrends

  • Reference evapotranspiration (ET): Madras (MRSO) and Powell Butte (POBO) AgriMet stations, operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), show typical early-May alfalfa-reference ET in the 0.18 to 0.25 inches per day range, within the seasonal envelope. ET is not the binding constraint this season.
  • Headwater snowpack: The binding constraint is headwater snowpack at 28% of normal at Crane Prairie and Wickiup, with basin precipitation at 77%.
  • District allotments: North Unit Irrigation District (NUID) 2026 allotments, board-approved March 24, 2026, are 1.30 acre-feet per acre (AF/acre) from the Deschutes River and 0.65 AF/acre from the Crooked River, both reduced from 2025 and continuing a multi-year downtrend. Tumalo Irrigation District is forecasting 60 to 70% of typical supplies. NUID water deliveries began April 13, 2026.
  • Implication: District managers are pulling from carryover storage earlier and harder than usual to backstop a freshet that will not materialize. Late-summer shut-offs are a probable rather than theoretical scenario for the 2026 irrigation season.

2. Healthy reservoir carryover is offset by record-low inflows

  • Wickiup Reservoir: Peaked at 186,560 acre-feet (AF) on March 25, 2026, approximately 93% of its 200,000 AF capacity, marking its highest level in eight years. As of early April, levels had begun to decline despite modest outflows, indicating that inflows are well below normal.
  • Crescent Lake: 28% full, a below-normal contribution to the system.
  • Deschutes system aggregate: Late-April USBR Hydromet teacup data shows approximately 383,000 AF of 540,687 AF total capacity, roughly 71% full. Storage is healthier than the 2020-2022 bottom, but the underlying snowpack and precipitation signal is among the weakest on record.
  • Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP) commitments: Approximately 19,000 AF of stored Wickiup water is dedicated to maintaining minimum winter Deschutes flows for Oregon spotted frog overwintering habitat under the Deschutes Basin HCP, with a stepped commitment to 300 cubic feet per second (cfs) from Wickiup by 2028.
  • Implication: Carryover is better than the worst recent years, but with 2026 inflows tracking near 2021 levels, NUID will lean on stored water earlier and harder than usual. Balancing summer drawdown against next-winter HCP holdbacks is genuinely precarious and will require active coordination across the irrigation districts and the Deschutes Basin watermaster.

3. Groundwater-fed baseflows are expected to decline

  • System hydrology: The Deschutes is a spring-fed system. Summer baseflows are dominated by groundwater discharging from the regional aquifer rather than direct snowmelt runoff. A clean baseflow signal is best read at upstream gages such as the Deschutes at Benham Falls or near Culver, above major diversions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gage at Moody (USGS 14103000) is the integrated, fully regulated downstream signal.
  • Aquifer trajectory: The aquifer bottomed in 2021-2022 and recovered through 2024-2025, but 2026’s near-record-low snowpack is expected to reverse that recovery. The Deschutes Basin watermaster’s February 2026 outlook flagged this directly.
  • 2026 live-flow comparison: NUID General Manager Josh Bailey reported in April 2026 that current conditions are “almost matching the conditions we experienced in 2021,” providing a concrete benchmark to a known crisis year.
  • Implication: Even with better-than-recent reservoir storage on the books, the spring-fed natural component of late-summer Deschutes flow is structurally compromised. Higher in-stream summer temperatures and lower habitat availability for native salmonids downstream of the Pelton-Round Butte Hydroelectric Project, including steelhead, redband trout, and reintroduced spring Chinook and sockeye, are a likely outcome through August and September.

Treaty Co-management Context

  • The Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs hold treaty-reserved rights across most of the Deschutes basin under the 1855 Treaty with the Tribes of Middle Oregon, are a CRITFC member tribe, and are co-licensees with Portland General Electric on the Pelton-Round Butte Hydroelectric Project. That co-licensee status makes the reintroduction program a tribal infrastructure asset, not a utility program with tribal interest attached. The Burns Paiute Tribe (USRT member) holds aboriginal interest in portions of the upper Deschutes and adjacent eastern Oregon basin, with the USRT ecosystem-based function framework directly applicable to summer flow temperature and habitat conditions. Operational decisions on summer Wickiup releases, HCP holdback assumptions, and Pelton-Round Butte flows are treaty-implicating, not pure utility-economic decisions.
  • The Burns Paiute Tribe (USRT member) has aboriginal interest in portions of the upper Deschutes and adjacent eastern Oregon basin. The USRT ecosystem-based function framework is directly applicable to summer flow temperature and habitat conditions downstream of Pelton-Round Butte.
  • Implication: operational decisions on summer Wickiup releases, HCP holdback assumptions, and Pelton-Round Butte flows are treaty-implicating for Warm Springs and aboriginal-interest-implicating for Burns Paiute. They are not pure utility-economic decisions and should not be framed as such inside NUID, COID, or BoR channels.

Key takeaway Treat 2026 as a 2021-class water year with better starting reservoir storage but worse hydrologic fundamentals. Irrigation districts are leaning on stored water earlier than usual to compensate for a freshet that will not materialize, and while the Deschutes system aggregate is currently 71% full, the absence of snowpack makes late-summer shut-offs a high-probability scenario rather than a worst-case one. Three actions follow. First, North Unit Irrigation District (NUID), Tumalo Irrigation District, and the Deschutes Basin watermaster should communicate likely shut-off windows to growers in May rather than August, when adjustment options narrow. Second, Habitat Conservation Plan (HCP) holdback assumptions for next-winter Oregon spotted frog flows and the stepped commitment to 300 cubic feet per second (cfs) from Wickiup Reservoir by 2028 should be modeled against a 2021-class summer drawdown, not an average year. Third, the Pelton-Round Butte Hydroelectric Project reintroduction program now sits inside a year where summer flow targets, HCP holdback assumptions, and host-reservoir thermal conditions are under simultaneous stress. The Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs hold co-licensee status with Portland General Electric on Pelton-Round Butte under the 1855 Treaty with the Tribes of Middle Oregon, which makes them the institutional anchor for any 2026 operational conversation, not a stakeholder consulted after decisions are framed.

Southwest Washington and the South Puget Sound are entering the 2026 dry season facing a “snow drought.” While total winter precipitation was slightly above average, warmer temperatures caused it to fall as rain rather than snow, leaving high-elevation reservoirs depleted. This lack of natural storage is compounded by structural constraints in major river systems like the Cowlitz and a growing reliance on vulnerable groundwater reserves in the South Sound. The 2026 dry season opens here with the same snowpack collapse hitting the rest of the state, layered on top of the Cowlitz system’s seismic-driven drawdown and a regional groundwater dependency that does not show up in mainstem flow forecasts. South Puget Sound and Central Puget Sound basins ended winter at 36 to 39 percent of median snow water equivalent, and the Squaxin Island Tribe’s groundwater-fed treaty streams are positioned for another low-baseflow summer. Treaty status varies across the basins covered, which is itself an operationally relevant fact.

1. Snowpack deficits and early runoff create a dual-front drought

  • Statewide snowpack: Statewide Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) ended April 1, 2026 at 53% of median, near the 5th percentile of all years on record. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) March 1 figures showed Central Puget Sound at 39% and South Puget Sound at 36%, among the lowest basin values in the state.
  • Precipitation context: Statewide Water Year to Date (WYTD) precipitation was 110% of normal. The deficit is a snow drought, not a precipitation drought. A warm winter shifted runoff into winter and early spring rather than holding it as snowpack.
  • Drought declaration: The Washington State Department of Ecology declared a statewide drought emergency on April 8, 2026, the fourth consecutive year of declarations and a record under the 1989 framework.
  • Chehalis basin: The Chehalis is rain-driven rather than snowmelt-driven. January 2026 monthly streamflow at Chehalis basin forecast points was already below normal, consistent with the regional pattern of below-normal precipitation across the Olympics and southwest Washington in late winter.
  • Implication: Rain-driven basins like the Chehalis lose their late-spring buffer first because they have no high-elevation reservoir to release. Snowpack-influenced basins drop in mid- to late-summer. In 2026, both clocks are running simultaneously, compressing the operational window for flow management decisions.

2. Cowlitz system remains limited by seismic safety constraints

  • Operating constraint: Riffe Lake at Mossyrock Dam has been operating under an Interim Risk Reduction Measure since 2017, with maximum reservoir elevation held at approximately 749 feet against the original 778.5 feet full pool, a roughly 30-foot reduction below capacity.
  • Seismic basis: The constraint is seismic rather than hydrologic. A 2017 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reanalysis found the spillway piers vulnerable to a 7.5 magnitude earthquake on a nearby fault. Spillway pier retrofit construction is scheduled to begin in early 2027 under a $76 million program, with the drawdown continuing at least until 2031 and restoration to 778.5 feet as the stated objective.
  • Current position: Tacoma Power reported on April 27, 2026 that both Mossyrock Park boat launches and Taidnapam North launch are open with docks in the water, placing Riffe Lake at or above 719 feet (the Taidnapam North threshold). This is a markedly healthier May 1 position than 2022 (approximately 691 feet in late December that year) or 2023 (approximately 674 feet on April 11). Cowlitz River discharge below Mayfield Dam was 5,100 cubic feet per second (cfs) on April 27, 2026, with planned variation between 5,800 and 6,300 cfs into early May.
  • License obligations: Downstream flow obligations are governed primarily by the 2002 Cowlitz Settlement Agreement embedded in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) license, with Endangered Species Act (ESA) listed Lower Columbia River Chinook, steelhead, and coho as parallel drivers. The license requires winter drawdown to 745.5 feet on or before December 1 for flood storage, and post-flood evacuation flows below Mayfield Dam not exceeding 50,000 cfs at Castle Rock.
  • Implication: Riffe Lake is structurally capacity-constrained for the next several years, separate from any drought signal. The 2026 spring position is favorable relative to the recent baseline, providing operating room that did not exist in 2022 to 2023, but the underlying ceiling remains 30 feet below original full pool. Late-summer flow obligations and grid reliability requirements will compete for a smaller pool than the original FERC license assumed.

3. Groundwater depletion threatens Squaxin Island treaty streams

  • Stream system: The Washington Deschutes River, Goldsborough Creek, and Kennedy Creek are within the Squaxin Island Tribe’s Treaty Usual and Accustomed (U&A) areas. Late-summer baseflows in all three are dominated by groundwater discharge from the regional aquifer rather than direct snowmelt or surface runoff.
  • Species composition: Species emphasis differs by stream. Kennedy Creek is primarily a chum system, with returns averaging 18,000 to 30,000 fish since post-1998 monitoring and habitat protection began. Goldsborough Creek is a coho recovery story since the 2001 dam removal, with a record 140,496 juvenile coho leaving the watershed in 2024. The Washington Deschutes lost its naturally spawning coho run in the late 1980s and reintroduction work continues. Chinook in these specific small streams serve primarily a juvenile rearing function rather than a spawning function.
  • Aquifer pressure: The Squaxin Island Tribe has flagged that growing impervious development in Thurston and Mason counties intercepts rainfall that would otherwise recharge the aquifer feeding these streams. The cumulative result is reduced summer baseflow even in years where total precipitation is near normal.
  • Implication: Even with a wet winter on paper at 110% WYTD precipitation, summer baseflow in these systems is structurally vulnerable to multi-year aquifer drawdown layered on top of any single-year snowpack signal. Lethal temperature spikes for adult chum staging in late summer and early fall are the operational risk for the Squaxin Island Tribe’s Treaty fishery, not single-event peak heat.

Treaty Co-management Context (NWIFC, federal recognition framework).

Treaty status varies across the basins covered, and this is the operative legal frame for any flow-rights, harvest-allocation, or trust-obligation conversation:

  • Squaxin Island Tribe and Nisqually Indian Tribe hold Medicine Creek (1854) treaty rights, including the U.S. v. Washington (Boldt, 1974) 50 percent allocation. Both are NWIFC members. Squaxin U&A includes the seven inlets of deep South Sound; Nisqually U&A is centered on the Nisqually River system.
  • Quinault Indian Nation holds Treaty of Olympia (1859) rights, and the 9th Circuit has confirmed the Quinault U&A reaches into Grays Harbor and the Chehalis system.
  • Cowlitz Indian Tribe is federally recognized (2000, reaffirmed 2002) but did not sign a Stevens treaty. They are not party to U.S. v. Washington and are not subject to the Boldt allocation framework. Their fishing rights claims rest on aboriginal title and active legal advocacy, including ongoing post-2017 cases over off-reservation harvest. The Cowlitz Tribe holds aboriginal interest across the Cowlitz River system, and operational decisions affecting Riffe Lake, Cowlitz minimum flows, and ESA-listed populations interact with tribal interests in ways that Boldt-era frameworks do not capture.
  • Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation are federally recognized through an 1864 Executive Order. The 9th Circuit (1996) held they lack off-reservation treaty fishing rights and have on-reservation rights only.

Key takeaway. Treat 2026 in Southwest Washington and South Puget Sound as a basin where three independent stresses converge: a regional snow drought hitting low-elevation rain-driven systems like the Chehalis River first, a structural reservoir constraint at Riffe Lake that is seismic rather than hydrologic in origin, and multi-year aquifer drawdown affecting groundwater-fed Squaxin Island Tribe Treaty streams. Three operational implications follow. First, expect early-season low flows in rain-fed basins because the water has already passed through the system, and expect Riffe Lake to bind against its Interim Risk Reduction Measure ceiling through summer drawdown despite a favorable May 1 starting position. Second, in the South Sound, the primary salmon risk is lethal temperature spikes for adult chum staging in late summer and early fall in the Washington Deschutes River, Goldsborough Creek, and Kennedy Creek, not single-event peak heat. Decades of Squaxin Island Tribe recovery work, including the post-1998 Kennedy Creek chum monitoring program and the Goldsborough Creek coho recovery following the 2001 dam removal, are exposed to that risk. Third, the Treaty status mix matters for any allocation conversation in the basin. The Squaxin Island Tribe, Nisqually Indian Tribe, and Quinault Indian Nation operate from full Treaty footings under the Treaty of Medicine Creek (1854) and the Treaty of Olympia (1855). The Cowlitz Indian Tribe and Confederated Tribes of the Chehalis Reservation operate from federal recognition and aboriginal interest footings, which does not diminish their stewardship interest but changes the legal frame for harvest allocation and trust-obligation arguments. Resource managers should not assume Boldt-style 50% allocation language applies uniformly across the basins covered.

Funding Opportunities

  • Emergency Community Water Assistance Grants from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Rural Development are available to federally recognized tribes in all Pacific Northwest states. The program helps eligible communities prepare, or recover from, an emergency that threatens availability of safe, reliable drinking water. Applications are accepted on an ongoing basis.
  • Water resources drought response grants are available to federally recognized tribes in the state of Washington. Applications are being accepted until August 7, 2026. Visit the Washington Department of Ecology’s Drought Response web page, or contact Caroline Mellor, Statewide Drought Lead with the Washington State Department of Ecology, for more information.
  • The USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) provides disaster assistance to producers across the country.
    • This fact sheet describes the types of disaster designations and the process for declaring a disaster.
    • This packet contains all of the FSA eligibility forms needed for Tribal Nations to apply for assistance.
  • The Bureau of Reclamation WaterSMART Drought Response Program is currently accepting proposals for projects designed to improve drought resilience by developing effective water management strategies and drought contingency plans. All federally recognized tribes in the Pacific Northwest are eligible to apply. Proposals are due July 28, 2026. Learn more and apply
  • The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) provides funding and technical assistance for Tribal Nations. Tribal governments need to adopt a FEMA-approved hazard mitigation plan to apply for and receive non-emergency disaster funds from FEMA assistance programs. This page provides more information.

Monitoring Tools

NOAA

U.S. Geological Survey

  • National Water Dashboard: The dashboard is an interactive map viewer that shows provisional real-time stream, lake, reservoir, precipitation, water quality, and groundwater data. Zoom in to your region and click on a station for more information.
  • National Groundwater Monitoring Network: The network is a compilation of selected groundwater monitoring wells from federal, state, and local groundwater monitoring networks across the nation. The data portal provides access to groundwater data from multiple, dispersed databases in an interactive map.

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Northwestern Division

  • View water management data by region or district, then select the project to view elevation and other relevant data.

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Columbia-Pacific Northwest Region

Other Monitoring Tools

Other Resources